White House chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci has warned that a more severe Covid variant could emerge as the U.S. daily new case average is now approaching 100,000 per day, exceeding the level of transmission last summer before vaccines were available.
Fauci, in an interview with McClatchy, said the U.S. could be “in trouble” if a new variant overtakes delta, which already has a viral load 1,000 times higher than the original Covid strain.
Fauci warned in the Wednesday interview that the U.S. is “very lucky” to have vaccines that have held up against the variants, suggesting that may not be the case if even more severe strains emerge.
“If another one comes along that has an equally high capability of transmitting but is also much more severe, then we could really be in trouble,” Fauci told McClatchy in the interview, published Wednesday evening. “People who are not getting vaccinated mistakenly think it’s only about them. But it isn’t. It’s about everybody else, also.”
The U.S. is reporting a seven-day average of nearly 94,000 new cases as of Aug. 4, up 48% from one week ago, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. In a separate measure from the average, the U.S. actually topped 100,000 daily new cases on Monday and Tuesday.
Dr. Stephen Morse , a professor of epidemiology at the Columbia University Irving Medical Center, said in an email that the “cycle of new variants keeps repeating as long as the virus infects people and circulates in the population, allowing opportunities for the virus to evolve.”
“I’d be very surprised if Delta were the last of the line,” Morse said.
And Dr. Barbara Taylor, a dean and infectious disease professor at UT Health San Antonio, added that future variants “that increase transmission will have the advantage” moving forward.
“As long as we have active spread of disease anywhere on the globe, we will continue to see new variants because we are giving the virus opportunities to evolve,” Taylor said in an email.
Are COVID Variants Less Severe?
The severity of COVID-19 variants can vary. Some variants have shown to be less severe in terms of the symptoms they cause and their impact on public health, while others have been more concerning.
For instance, the Omicron variant, which became widespread in late 2021, was found to be more transmissible but generally caused milder symptoms compared to earlier strains like Delta.
However, this does not mean that all future variants will follow the same pattern.
There are several factors that contribute to the perceived severity of a variant, including:
- Transmissibility: How easily the variant spreads from person to person.
- Immune Evasion: The variant’s ability to evade immunity from previous infections or vaccinations.
- Virulence: The ability of the variant to cause severe disease, including hospitalizations and death.
While some variants may cause milder symptoms, they can still lead to severe outcomes, particularly in vulnerable populations such as the elderly, those with underlying health conditions, and the unvaccinated.
Additionally, even variants that cause milder disease can still strain healthcare systems due to their high transmissibility, leading to large numbers of infections.
What Is the Most Widespread COVID Variant?
As of 2024, the most widespread COVID-19 variant globally is the Omicron variant and its subvariants. Since its emergence in late 2021, Omicron quickly became the dominant strain worldwide due to its high transmissibility.
Several subvariants of Omicron, such as BA.4, BA.5, and others, have also spread widely, each with slightly different characteristics.
- Omicron: Known for its rapid spread and ability to infect even those who are fully vaccinated or previously infected, Omicron has led to numerous waves of infections around the world. Despite its high transmissibility, Omicron has generally caused less severe illness compared to the Delta variant, particularly in populations with high levels of immunity.
- Omicron Subvariants: The Omicron variant has continued to evolve, giving rise to multiple subvariants. These subvariants have contributed to ongoing waves of infection, with some showing increased resistance to antibodies generated by previous infections or vaccinations.
It’s important to note that the dominant variant can vary by region and over time as new variants emerge and spread.
Monitoring the global spread of variants helps public health officials tailor responses and update vaccination strategies to address the most prevalent strains.
Conclusion
Dr. Fauci’s warning about the potential emergence of a more severe COVID-19 variant highlights the need for continued vigilance and adaptation in the fight against the virus.
While current COVID variants like Omicron have been less severe in some respects, the ever-changing nature of the virus means that more dangerous variants could still arise.
Understanding the characteristics of current and future variants, maintaining public health measures, and ensuring widespread vaccination are critical steps in managing the ongoing pandemic.
Staying informed about the latest developments and following guidance from health authorities will be essential in navigating the challenges that lie ahead.
By remaining prepared and responsive to new information, we can better protect ourselves and our communities from the evolving threat of COVID-19.
